欧洲央行利率决议

Cut or not to cut, that is the question?
降息还是不降息，这是一个问题？

     The question on many investors’ lips since the poor euro data releases last week is whether the ECB will cut rates tomorrow. Industrial and consumer confidence combined with consumer price indicators all came in negative and this started the whisper rumours around trading desks worldwide.
     自欧元区上周公布疲软的数据后，欧洲央行明天是否会降息成为众多投资者的谈资。疲软的工业和消费者信心指数及消费者物价数据使谣言在全球交易部门传播。
     The euro had been on an uptrend since October but this was more down to the dollar being so aggressively sold as investors cut American holdings due to the US trying to work out whether it could or indeed would pay its bills. The pull back in the EURO since now indicates some concern from the market place. The higher EURO causes issues for exporters and Germany is the second biggest in the world. Poor consumer confidence combined with a slowing down in China and a higher EURO make it harder for the German Industrial engine to fire. It is Germany that is keeping the EURO dream alive and if it starts to be hindered then the whole of the Euro zone will suffer.
      十月以来，欧元一直呈上升趋势，但因为美国不确定能否偿还债务，导致投资者减持美国资产，美元被大幅抛售。欧元现在的回落表明市场的担忧。欧元汇率上涨为出口商带来麻烦，德国是世界上第二大出口商。疲软的消费者信心、中国经济放缓及强劲的欧元使得德国工业引擎更难发动。德国一直支撑着欧元的梦想，如果德国经济开始受到牵制，整个欧元区都将遭殃。
      The chances of a rate cut tomorrow I would suggest are slim. It would mean that Draghi’s policies up until now had all been but a failure and we all know too well he is not one to admit when he gets something wrong.
      我认为明天降息的可能性是比较小的。降息意味着直到现在德拉吉的政策都是失败的，我们都很清楚，他并不是一个会承认自己做错了的人。
      Position Recommendation: Stay flat, stay safe
      持仓建议：越少仓位，越安全。