原油持续上涨动力不足

     Crude has continued to trade in a sideways pattern since the 10th. The rally which I believe has been totally manufactured by speculators and market manipulators is starting to run out of steam. The Egyptian crisis combined with a US economic recovery cannot be the sole reason for a $9 move in WTI.  The RSI indicates an overbought status this combined with the lack of real momentum to push higher indicates to me that this rally is done and a reversal in this trend is on the cards.
    If we look at oil inventories for the last 2 weeks we have seen a drawdown of 20 million barrels something which has not been seen in 30 years of historical data. If the economy is doing so well, as illustrated by Nonfarm Payroll number and the continued pumping of QE to bolster it, then why make a cut?
    The Suez Canal was never going to be an issue and if there was a real confidence in the US recovery then the last thing would be take your foot of the gas.
The August contract expires on the 22nd and I suspect some potential for real profit taking and an aggressive sell off.

      原油从10日开始一直持续单边涨势。我相信这次上涨完全是由投资者和市场操纵者引起的，这次的上涨已经开始失去动力。埃及危机加上美国经济复苏可能是推动西德克赛斯中质原油移动9美元的部分原因。相对强弱指数表明原油已经超卖，同时缺乏真正推高原油价格的动力，这在我看来原油上涨趋势已经结束，原油趋势即将会逆转。
       如果我们看看上2周原油库存，我们可以看到原油库存减少2000万桶，这是30年未见的数据。如果经济表现真的这么好，正如非农数据显示的那样,同时持续的量化宽松政策来提振经济，为什么原油库存会减少？
苏伊士运河永远不会是一个问题，如果市场对美国经济复苏真的有信心，那么投资者绝对不会这么做。
      原油期货8月22日到期，我怀疑市场是否会倾向于真正获利了结和大幅抛售。